Event Region : India

Comparative history of democracies tells us that if contested freely, democratic elections are fundamentally open-ended. There can, of course, be dominant parties, which may have the upper hand electorally. But high probabilities do not amount to certainties. The Karnataka Assembly election results have ignited a flurry of questions regarding the larger consequences of the Congress party’ victory. The possibility, if not the inevitability, of a fairly substantial opposition unity may complicate the probabilities further. The index of opposition unity has long been an important factor in India for election analysis. Finally, political analysts have also raised the question of a possible exhaustion of ruling narratives. What narratives are available to political parties dominant for a decade? In short, does persistence in power ensure continuity of rule? In this seminar, we will delve into the emerging possibilities in Indian politics, roughly half a year before some key state elections taking place in December 2023 and the much more significant national elections of 2024. The emphasis will be on probabilities, not certitudes.